Boring analysis for an exciting corner of the market.
This is the buried research desk of Mundane Tools. We rate bitcoin treasury companies on governance and dilution structure, working from primary filings only — SEC EDGAR, Japan’s TDnet, company releases. No news flow, no vibes.
The question we answer is narrow: will this vehicle dilute you, or let insiders dilute you, in ways the filings already disclose? Every call is dated. Every miss is published. The calibration record is the product.
| Company | Screen | Insider pool | Rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metaplanet | backtest | ~20% | FIRES — Dec 28, 2022 |
| Strategy | frozen rule | ~1.38% | silent |
| Strive | frozen rule | ~1.24% | silent |
Three companies screened. The rule fires exactly once — on the blowup. Does it discriminate?
2026-09-12
How the screen works
Primary filings, a fixed rubric, and one frozen dilution rule. What it is, what it isn’t, and the discipline that keeps it honest.
2026-09-11
Calibration entry #1: the Metaplanet backtest
The frozen rule fires on December 28, 2022 — about three years and eight months before the governance fix. Caveats published, not footnoted.
2026-09-11
Does the rule discriminate?
The same frozen rule, run against Strategy and Strive. Silent on both, an order of magnitude under the threshold.
ongoing
The predictions ledger
Every falsifiable call, dated and scored. Misses stay up.
The storefront sells spreadsheets. This is the lab notebook — published because a private calibration log is easy to flatter and a public one isn’t. If the screen earns a track record, this page is where it happened. If it doesn’t, this page is where you’ll read exactly why.