Mundane Tools · The Treasury Corner

The predictions ledger

Dated, frozen, scored. Misses stay up.

Ledger rules

Every entry: date logged, forecaster, a falsifiable claim, an explicit probability, a resolve-by date, and written resolution criteria. No entry without all six.
Wording is frozen at log time. Never edited after the fact — superseded, not revised.
Resolved entries keep their original text, including the wrong ones.
Scored predictions start at #3. Entries #1–2 are calibration records resolved before this ledger existed; shown for completeness, not scored.

Calibration records (not scored)

Record #1 · Backtest · resolved 2026-09-11

Metaplanet: the frozen rule fires on the 2022-12-28 disclosure

Not a prediction — a backtest with a rule written knowing the outcome. Verdict: PASS, ~3y8m lead time. Caveats: hindsight-authored, n=1, flag predates the BTC pivot, PDF not yet eyes-on verified. Full writeup: calibration entry #1.

Record #2 · Prediction (retroactive) · logged 2026-09-11 · resolved 2026-09-11

The frozen rule will return SILENT on both Strategy and Strive

Made the morning of the discrimination run, resolved the same day — logged here retroactively as a calibration record rather than a scored prediction, because it was not in the ledger before resolution. Outcome: CORRECT (1.38% and 1.24%, no ratchets). Full writeup: discrimination test.

Open predictions

Prediction #3 · forecaster: Mundane Tools · logged 2026-09-12

Eyes-on read of the Dec 28, 2022 TDnet filing will confirm all three trigger facts

Claim: opening the actual PDF will confirm (i) a 46M-share initial pool, (ii) a ~20%-of-fully-diluted design target, and (iii) an adjustment provision tying the pool to the fully diluted count. Probability: 85%. Resolve-by: 2026-09-30. Criteria: the PDF is read directly; each of the three facts is confirmed or denied individually; any material discrepancy on any fact resolves the prediction WRONG.

OPEN

Prediction #4 · forecaster: Mundane Tools · logged 2026-09-12

At least 8 of the next 10 treasury companies screened will return SILENT under the frozen v1 rule

Claim: the 10% threshold discriminates in the wild, not just on the calibration set. The rule text is frozen at v1 — unedited — for all ten screens. Probability: 75%. Resolve-by: when ten new screens complete, or 2027-03-12, whichever comes first. Criteria: count SILENT vs FIRES across the next ten newly screened companies; 8+ silent resolves CORRECT; 7 or fewer resolves WRONG (and the threshold gets recalibrated as v2).

OPEN